A hot NFP means a hot USD
Techno-Imperial Cycle keeps on cycling & What regime are we in?
Philo’s Thoughts from this week 👇 — just a 2 minute podcast 🎙️
Also, reminder that No-End Dividend launches this month with posts on one high-quality dividend payer, twice a month! Cha ching! 🤑
Non-Farm Payrolls today blasted through expectations (140K) to increase by 254,000 for the month of September. Unemployment stood at 4.1%, down from 4.3% two months ago.
Maybe the summer was hot? Maybe the economy is hot? Maybe the government is making everything up? Does it even matter?
Note that there’s a very high chance this NFP estimate is revised down, as the response rate was very very low. This basically means that the revision could show that payrolls didn’t increase by that much..
Zooming out on the bigger picture — Unemployment is higher than it was last year.
Why the Fed cut by 50
In my piece from last month, one of the things I mentioned was the Fed’s incentive to keep the economy strong. Excerpt below.
With today’s NFP figures, the Fed is off the hook in having to keep up the pace with further rate cuts —> which could re-spike inflation and cause grief.
Fed Funds futures show a 91% chance of a 25bps rate cut in the next Fed meeting in November.