Downside at AI
Is it all pie in the Cloud? ☁️ 🥧 Part #1
We soft-launched Downside at Philo in early 2023 with two pieces — on Moderna and Transocean. They are both down 50% since then.
Earlier this year I wrote, “Is the Nasdaq in a Reflexive Bubble?” and later on “Biden’s Techno-Imperial Cycle.”
These are big picture thematic pieces on the economy-at-large and their overlap with the Techno-AI cycle. This context serves not only us a warning for what may come, but also for preparation.
If you aren’t prepared you won’t maximise the payoff.
Top-Down Investing and the AI theme
Is it good to invest top down? That is to say to invest based on a BIG IDEA or over-arching theme? Depends — do you have the skills to do it?
I say this because most out there are just “investing in AI” purely on a top down basis, not bottom up. I touched upon this greater theme in my Contra piece, with a really interesting POV from my contra. Read the below 👇
Complications 🔄
Now you might say — so what if they invest in stocks that may be overpriced? So what if AAPL is expensive. They will just lose their money, right? No.
I broke down in Techno-AI — that the way we think about the world (i.e. our fallibility) ends up SHAPING the world. I offer an excerpt below, which I explain in a 2-minute audio file.
So, how much value does AI really create?
Let’s begin…