BTCUSD has increased 5% since this was written. Almost 10% since your "cough, cough" chat note. What exactly is your price prediction and in what time frame please?
Strictly speaking, I don't have a time-frame to be honest. Time-frames can rarely be set intelligently, because that would mean one has to know exactly all the events that would occur from that day onwards. But gut feel says it can't go much longer..
For example: since I wrote the piece, 1) MSTR was added to the Nasdaq and 2) today there was news flow that Trump was pumping up BTC - of course it's going to go up no?
As for my price prediction: the data in the piece on how much BTC fell in previous cycles is in my view a good heuristic as to how much it could fall again! Crypto cycles are deeeep. If you want a rough approximation, think >50%.
In my previous piece, Dump Your Crypto dated October 27th, 2021 - BTC went up another 15% from the date of posting before crashing. A percentage here and a percentage there doesn't really mean much - if the thesis is intact. (This doesn't mean exactly the same thing will happen with Dump Your Crypto 2.0)
I hope this covers your questions? Let me know accordingly.
Thanks. I think it explains your approach. The issue, as you know, is that open predictions are always right and rarely helpful. Me saying: Nvidia will go down, BTC will go down then up, EUR will collapse. Always true at some point.
Of course % "here or there" matters. A thesis being correct does not buy you anything, a call that is 10% off on 10 BTC is ~$100,000 less to blow on degen shit. If a % doesn't matter, why comment on moves that support your pov, eg BTC down 3-4%.
Specific and wrong with clearly detailed thinking and a transparent performance record is helpful. Full long term, market trends, non obvious.
I think you should decide which you are. Otherwise you risk becoming the FT= noise. My small, humble feedback. Take or leave
" If a % doesn't matter, why comment on moves that support your pov, eg BTC down 3-4%."
--> Because you comment on a move that is happening in real-time, which according to your thesis could be the actual top or part of the process of the top. It's one thing to have a thesis, and another thing to see the market start to corroborate it.
"Of course % "here or there" matters. A thesis being correct does not buy you anything, a call that is 10% off on 10 BTC is ~$100,000 less to blow on degen shit"
--> A thesis is something you TRADE. Right or wrong, the money comes from the trading. Did I call any trades in this piece? No I didn't. What I did was I wrote a piece, gave my views, and let those who read it do their own trading. That should have been obvious. And therefore, saying that "thesis being correct does not buy you anything" is redundant.
"The issue, as you know, is that open predictions are always right and rarely helpful. Me saying: Nvidia will go down, BTC will go down then up, EUR will collapse. Always true at some point."
BTCUSD has increased 5% since this was written. Almost 10% since your "cough, cough" chat note. What exactly is your price prediction and in what time frame please?
Strictly speaking, I don't have a time-frame to be honest. Time-frames can rarely be set intelligently, because that would mean one has to know exactly all the events that would occur from that day onwards. But gut feel says it can't go much longer..
For example: since I wrote the piece, 1) MSTR was added to the Nasdaq and 2) today there was news flow that Trump was pumping up BTC - of course it's going to go up no?
As for my price prediction: the data in the piece on how much BTC fell in previous cycles is in my view a good heuristic as to how much it could fall again! Crypto cycles are deeeep. If you want a rough approximation, think >50%.
In my previous piece, Dump Your Crypto dated October 27th, 2021 - BTC went up another 15% from the date of posting before crashing. A percentage here and a percentage there doesn't really mean much - if the thesis is intact. (This doesn't mean exactly the same thing will happen with Dump Your Crypto 2.0)
I hope this covers your questions? Let me know accordingly.
Thanks. I think it explains your approach. The issue, as you know, is that open predictions are always right and rarely helpful. Me saying: Nvidia will go down, BTC will go down then up, EUR will collapse. Always true at some point.
Of course % "here or there" matters. A thesis being correct does not buy you anything, a call that is 10% off on 10 BTC is ~$100,000 less to blow on degen shit. If a % doesn't matter, why comment on moves that support your pov, eg BTC down 3-4%.
Specific and wrong with clearly detailed thinking and a transparent performance record is helpful. Full long term, market trends, non obvious.
I think you should decide which you are. Otherwise you risk becoming the FT= noise. My small, humble feedback. Take or leave
" If a % doesn't matter, why comment on moves that support your pov, eg BTC down 3-4%."
--> Because you comment on a move that is happening in real-time, which according to your thesis could be the actual top or part of the process of the top. It's one thing to have a thesis, and another thing to see the market start to corroborate it.
"Of course % "here or there" matters. A thesis being correct does not buy you anything, a call that is 10% off on 10 BTC is ~$100,000 less to blow on degen shit"
--> A thesis is something you TRADE. Right or wrong, the money comes from the trading. Did I call any trades in this piece? No I didn't. What I did was I wrote a piece, gave my views, and let those who read it do their own trading. That should have been obvious. And therefore, saying that "thesis being correct does not buy you anything" is redundant.
"The issue, as you know, is that open predictions are always right and rarely helpful. Me saying: Nvidia will go down, BTC will go down then up, EUR will collapse. Always true at some point."
--> Was this not helpful? https://www.philoinvestor.com/p/nvidia-no-more What about Dump Your Crypto 1.0?
Thanks. Super clear. Peace out
🫡🦉