The Daily Philo
Prices going up. Thoughts on BTC.
Expanding the offering
Daily and sometimes twice-daily thoughts in the Philochat
Raising prices on the annual plan very shortly
Those who subscribe before that lock in the current pricing
Expanding how?
Events are moving faster than our ability to think and understand them. You can’t just keep up.
What better way to stay on top of this than to hear it from someone who has dedicated his life to understanding these global events and how they tie up with financial markets? ANSWER ME! 🦉🥲
I now update the Philochat on important news flow, events and trade setups etc. This as a way to expand the offering and give more value to Philoinvestors.
BITCOIN
In mid December I came out with a bearish piece on Bitcoin and Crypto titled DUMP YOUR CRYPTO 2.0.
Excuse me, but you need a certain amount of balls to come out bearish Bitcoin when even the incoming PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES is pumping it.
But no, we did not hesitate — here at Philoinvestor, we call it as we see it.
What has Bitcoin done since? It’s moving sideways and forming a top — I kept updating the community in the Philochat about my thoughts on Bitcoin, currencies and other trades — and as they relate to wider buckets like the “Trump Trade” etc.
Now we see Bitcoin once again moving towards a level of importance to test it.
Saylor and his army of goons could come in and BTFD, but they can’t hold a market forever.
A break below the yellow area spells trouble for Bitcoin.
Philochat Examples
This is what I posted yesterday to subscribers.
The problem with BTC (on top of everything else) is that it basically became part of the Trump Trade bucket, as Trump 2.0 put its name on Crypto and BTC.
The rally post-Trump election means BTC and Crypto are now de facto a Trump Trade, and for practical market purposes, not much more than that.
Yes, the MSTR/Saylor antics of borrowing in fiat to buy BTC is keeping the market up, as well as the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve setup - but my view is that BTC is flagging to break down..
--> And break down concurrently with a leg down in the Dollar (another Trump trade).
We've talked in previous Philochats on the bearish DXY setup, so scroll up for more colour there.
For now I will say this, the Dollar is up for many reasons - but one of them is definitely the higher for longer story. BUT the thing is the Euro and the Yen are staging a come back, REGARDLESS of future inflation readings and Fed Talk. (Each for its own reasons)
IF there is progress in inflation, then expect the Dollar drop to be even easier.
On the flip side, you could say BTC is consolidating since mid November to break higher.
Could be, but a break below 90-92K says that thesis has failed.
Today I touched on the German federal elections this Sunday and my thoughts around them.
Scholz, Merz rule out governing together after the German elections this Sunday.
And so, there is no chance for the SPD to team up with the CDU/CSU to form a government.
--> Meanwhile, Merz warns that another financial crisis is coming in the EU. My reply: Are you going to do anything about it?? 😂
We seem from Politico polls that even if CDU/CSU gets 30%, they need another 20% to form a government...where is that going to come from?
Is the AfD still off the table?
Else, it has to be CDU/CSU + Greens + Left. I don't know, maybe. I don't know what the exact red lines, I just read the future trends 🦉
2.5 years ago I came out with a suggestion that the AfD could be in government next round, here: https://x.com/philoinvestor/status/1578279749499379713
All my thoughts on AfD's rise here: https://x.com/search?q=from%3Aphiloinvestor%20AfD&src=typed_query
The DXY up 20bps with a bounce on the upper range of our 7% Trading Range, we see how things moves.
Nasdaq flirting with ATHs and BTC hovering above the neckline of the technical formation, below 92K we have confirmation of breakdown.
There are countless other examples of value added in the Philochat, but I can’t list them all here. If you feel this is for you, subscribe now.
Sincerely,
Philo 🦉